Teorii despre tranziție in Orientul Mijlociu (1)

Vă semnalez un citat interersant despre aspectele teoretice privind teoria tranziției in Orientul Mijlociu.

Hinnebusch, Raymond, Authoritarian Persistence, DemocratizationTheory and the Middle East: An Overviewand Critique, în Democratization, Vol.13, No.3, June 2006, pp.373–395

„In this respect, transition theory holds that the optimal scenario for elite-led democratization is a combination of

(a) elite divisions inside an authoritarian regime and

(b) the formation of an alliance between regime liberals and an opposition that is both moderate yet popularly credible, in order to marginalize the hard-liners in both camps and incorporate the masses in a way compatible with regime reform rather than collapse.

This alliance would reach a pact, embodying a compromise preserving elite interests while accommodating and promising the opposition increased influence through a gradual democratization.

Succession of a new regime leader might cause the split in the regime and present an opportunity for reaching a pact as intra-elite competition leads members of the elite to reach out for public support. The generational change in leadership that has started in the Middle East might be expected to facilitate democratization, especially as new young leaders were socialized in a period in which authoritarian rule has become discredited. It has not yet done so, however, for democratization is much more risky in the Middle East than it is in most other areas.Mansfield and Snyder show that one way elites have sustained their power in the transition to democracy is to play the nationalist card, and in the Middle East there is an enormous reservoir of nationalist grievances that elites could tap.

Yet, the external dependency of most Middle East elites makes this card too dangerous to play as it would probably foster irredentist conflict or put the state at odds with Western patrons; this leaves the nationalist card to counter-elites, making it an obstacle to democratization.A relevant case in point is the history of Jordan’s attempted democratization.

The initial early-1990s success of Jordan’s pact depended on the special nationalist legitimacy won by King Hussein as a result of his disengagement from the West Bank to the benefit of the Palestine Liberation Organization and by his stand against the West in the first Iraq war of 1991. However, Jordan’s subsequent foreign policy re-alignment toward the United States and its peace treaty with Israel cost the monarchy a good deal of this legitimacy bonus and, as the opposition mobilized the public against relations with Israel, required that it put the brakes on,even reverse, its democratization experiment.

The US aid the regime received in return preserved the rent-funded clientele networks that buttressed monarchic authoritarianism.”

Despre Claudiu Degeratu
Expert in securitate nationala, internationala, NATO, UE, aparare si studii strategice

2 Responses to Teorii despre tranziție in Orientul Mijlociu (1)

  1. Marieta says:

    This is quite difficult to read and understand, a translation is recommended. For ordinary people of course. TY

  2. Pingback: Orientul Mijlociu în tranziție | Semanticus Blog

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