Viitorul UE

A apărut Cartea albă privind viitorul Uniunii – Reflecții și scenarii pentru
UE-27 până în 2025. Dacă încercăm să fim pozitivi am putea spune că Presedintele Jean-Claude Juncker a încercat să mulțumească pe toată lumea. Pentru negativisti, documentul este doar o confirmare a unor tendinţe deja identificate.

Eu mai am de citit la document însă din experienţă recomand câteva chestiuni.

Nu este bine să ne războim cu scenariile, adică nu realizăm nimic dacă negăm nişte scenarii.

Nu este bine să ne alegem scenariile care ne convin, le analizăm pe toate.

Dacă scenariile sunt realizate si sunt realizate, după o metodologie clară atunci ele conţin tendinţe verificate deci nu prea putem să le punem la indoială.

Este mai importantă propria noastră analiză determinată de toate scenariile prezentate decât multe detalii din scenarii.

Dacă ne vom focaliza constant doar pe scenariul care pare cel mai periculos pentru România atunci nu vom avea o poziţie solidă la negocieri.

 

Viitorul

Where do minds belong? by Caleb Scharf

As a species, we humans are awfully obsessed with the future. We love to speculate about where our evolution is taking us. We try to imagine what our technology will be like decades or centuries from now. And we fantasise about encountering intelligent aliens – generally, ones who are far more advanced than we are. Lately those strands have begun to merge. From the evolution side, a number of futurists are predicting the singularity: a time when computers will soon become powerful enough to simulate human consciousness, or absorb it entirely. In parallel, some visionaries propose that any intelligent life we encounter in the rest of the Universe is more likely to be machine-based, rather than humanoid meat-bags such as ourselves.

These ruminations offer a potential solution to the long-debated Fermi Paradox: the seeming absence of intelligent alien life swarming around us, despite the fact that such life seems possible. If machine intelligence is the inevitable end-point of both technology and biology, then perhaps the aliens are hyper-evolved machines so off-the-charts advanced, so far removed from familiar biological forms, that we wouldn’t recognise them if we saw them. Similarly, we can imagine that interstellar machine communication would be so optimised and well-encrypted as to be indistinguishable from noise. In this view, the seeming absence of intelligent life in the cosmos might be an illusion brought about by our own inadequacies.

Viitorul, acest lucru incert

Why futurologists are always wrong – and why we should be sceptical of techno-utopians by

In his book The Future of the Mind, the excitable physicist and futurologist Michio Kaku mentions Darpa. This is America’s Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, the body normally credited with creating, among other things, the internet. It gets Kaku in a foam of futurological excitement. “The only justification for its existence is . . .” he says, quoting Darpa’s strategic plan, “to ‘accelerate the future into being’”.

This isn’t quite right (and it certainly isn’t literate). What Darpa actually says it is doing is accelerating “that future into being”, the future in question being the specific requirements of military commanders. This makes more sense but is no more literate than Kaku’s version. Never mind; Kaku’s is a catchy phrase. It is not strictly meaningful – the future will arrive at its own pace, no matter how hard we press the accelerator – but we know what he is trying to mean. Technological projects from smartphones to missiles can, unlike the future, be accelerated and, in Kaku’s imagination, such projects are the future.

Meanwhile, over at the Googleplex, the search engine’s headquarters in Silicon Valley, Ray Kurzweil has a new job. He has been hired by Google to “work on new projects involving machine learning and language processing”.

Era digitală

The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of People, Nations and Business by Eric Schmidt , Jared Cohen

 

The sewing machine was the smartphone of the nineteenth century. Just skim through the promotional materials of the leading sewing-machine manufacturers of that distant era and you will notice the many similarities with our own lofty, dizzy discourse. The catalog from Willcox & Gibbs, the Apple of its day, in 1864, includes glowing testimonials from a number of reverends thrilled by the civilizing powers of the new machine. One calls it a “Christian institution”; another celebrates its usefulness in his missionary efforts in Syria; a third, after praising it as an “honest machine,” expresses his hope that “every man and woman who owns one will take pattern from it, in principle and duty.” The brochure from Singer in 1880—modestly titled “Genius Rewarded: or, the Story of the Sewing Machine”—takes such rhetoric even further, presenting the sewing machine as the ultimate platform for spreading American culture. – Future Shlock.Meet the two-world hypothesis and its havoc by Evgeny Morozov