Viitorul Pontif

English: Old World Map Near Jerusalem City Cou...

 

Pentru cine urmărește acest subiect și mai ales bursa zvonurilor privind viitorul Papă  recomand și lectura

 

a unui studiu privind scenarii pentru Orientul Mijlociu, elaborat în 2005, studiu care ia în calcul un scenariu cu un Papă recent ales.

 

 

Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, (2005) „Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios”, foresight, Vol. 7 Iss: 2, pp.8 – 20 – See more at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1464986&show=abstract#sthash.UEToB3OK.dpuf

 

Articolul este doar pe abonament dar există și o variantă pe The Millennium Project. Citatul este cam lung dar sper să vă placă ce se discuta în anumite cercuri prin 2005.

 

 

Scenario 2. The Open City
The white smoke signaled the election of a new pope. He assumed the office with humility and fervor. His priority, he announced, was facilitating peace around the world, particularly in the Middle East. He began his mission by addressing the Jerusalem question. Although his advisors cautioned „you can only blunt your authority-it’s unsolvable,” he maintained that God had given him this mission and as far as he and the church were concerned this took priority over politics. „The fact that it is a difficult mission,” he said, „only raises the stakes of the test. Is it more difficult than the tests that God gave Jesus, Moses, or Abraham?” The cardinals were mute but whispered among themselves, „the church will be in chaos.”
He personally called the leaders of the Jewish orthodox and reformed sects in Israel and their counterparts in the Muslim world, as well as Buddhist and Hindu leaders. (The non-involved religious leaders were invited to provide added credibility to the proceedings.) The new US president and EU leaders gave secret and subtle signals that they endorsed such a meeting. Deft use of the media-particularly live interviews on CNN and „60 Minutes”-made it hard for the religious leaders who were invited by the pope to refuse to meet and talk.
When the plans were made public, Muslim hardliners called this a „new Christian crusade.” Jewish right-wingers were also not very interested in the views of the Catholic Church, recalling the expulsion of Jews from Jerusalem during the Crusades.
Yet the meeting plans continued and the religious leaders met on neutral ground, at an isolated ranch in New Zealand, and called their historic session Religious Leaders for Peace, or RLP. That the Chief Rabbi of Israel and the Grand Mufti met in the same room was viewed as a worthy accomplishment and a milestone in its own right on the way to peace, since attending the meeting carried the very real risk of being ostracized by conservatives in their own camps.
At the first meeting, the initial coolness worsened a bit after each member justified his or her position as God-given. Then the pope said, „Yes. God has blessed each of you as you have said, and he has also given us brains with which to reason, and that is what I pray we can do. This issue of Jerusalem pertains to religious law and custom; it should be above secular self-interests and politics and we can at least begin to discuss how to resolve it. It is too simple to say that Jerusalem can be a city-state like the Vatican; there are three religions involved here. We must ask God for guidance.”
Perhaps the meeting went ahead because Jews, Palestinians, and Arabs were war-weary; perhaps the governments realized that the possibility of progress without some help from outside was not good; perhaps it was the general belief that the issue had progressed to the point of being „much too important to be left to governments”; perhaps the rise of interest in religion around the world caused people to be open to considering „a higher way.”
The religious leaders began with points of agreement: free access to the holy sites should be guaranteed. How ludicrous it would be, they agreed, if one religion were to attempt to deny access to anyone of another religion who wanted to pay homage there. The plan must be beyond political, ideological, and economic interests. It grew from these seeds of agreement. Jerusalem should be an open city under no nation’s sole jurisdiction, but under religious protection and authority. They recognized that the problem of Jerusalem does not affect just Israel or a future state of Palestine but is of global concern.
Their proclamation recognized that Jews, Muslims, Christians, and other faiths have to work toward a sharing of God’s gifts.

 

Guerrilla

The Evolution of Irregular War by Max Boot FP

Guerrillas often present a further paradox: even the most successful raiders have been prone to switch to conventional tactics once they achieve great military success. The Mongols eventually turned into a semiregular army under Genghis Khan, and the Arabs underwent a similar transformation. They fought in traditional Bedouin style while spreading Islam across the Middle East in the century after Muhammad’s death, in 632. But their conquests led to the creation of the Umayyad and Abbassid caliphates, two of the greatest states of the medieval world, which were defended by conventional forces. The Turkish empire, too, arose out of the raiding culture of the steppes but built a formidable conventional army, complete with highly disciplined slave-soldiers, the janissaries. The new Ottoman army conquered Constantinople in a famous siege in 1453 and, within less than a century, advanced to the gates of Vienna….
What makes counterinsurgency all the more difficult is that there are few quick victories in this type of conflict. Since 1775, the average insurgency has lasted seven years (and since 1945, it has lasted almost ten years). Attempts by either insurgents or counterinsurgents to short-circuit the process usually backfire. The United States tried to do just that in the early years of both the Vietnam War and the Iraq war by using its conventional might to hunt down guerrillas in a push for what John Paul Vann, a famous U.S. military adviser in Vietnam, rightly decried as „fast, superficial results.” It was only when the United States gave up hopes of a quick victory, ironically, that it started to get results, by implementing the tried-and-true tenets of population-centric counterinsurgency. In Vietnam, it was already too late, but in Iraq, the patient provision of security came just in time to avert an all-out civil war.

 

Rusia și Orientul Mijlociu

League of Arab States, official version.

League of Arab States, official version. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

 

Rusia face un pas importnat spre colaborarea mai structurată cu Liga arabă, s-a convenit un plan de acțiune comun. Moscova anticipează corect, cred eu, viitorul rol sporit al Ligii arabe în perioada post-Primăvara arabă și, într-o formă sau alta, atât SUA dar și UE vor intra oficial sau neoficial în aceeași schemă cu Liga arabă, contrucția capătă contur.

 

 

ACTION PLAN -For the implementation of the principles, goals and objectives of the Russian-Arab Cooperation Forum for 2013-2015
I. POLITICAL COOPERATION
 The Parties will regularly exchange opinions on relevant regional and international issues of common interest with the view of:
∙ Establishing a just and democratic world order with the leading role of the universal legal regulations;
∙ Supporting the establishment of international peace and security;
∙ Achieving a permanent, just, comprehensive and peaceful settlement in the Middle East, based on the relevant United Nations resolutions and the principles adopted by the Madrid Peace Conference, and the Road Map, the Arab Peace initiative;
∙ Coordination of activities in the field of disarmament and non-proliferation including the establishment in the Middle East of a zone free of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems as well asimprovement of international cooperation in the sphere of peaceful nuclear energy;
∙ Developing further of the dialogue among civilizations, including the one based on the goals and values of the Alliance of Civilizations;
∙ Counteraction against global threats and challenges, including threat of terrorism, drug trafficking, corruption, piracy etc.
The Parties will coordinate their approaches and practical steps in the framework of the UN and its specialized agencies as well as other international organizations. The meetings of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the League of Arab States Secretary General will be held annually on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Foreign policy consultations in the framework of the Joint Senior Officials Committee will be held regularly, at least once every six months.
For this purposes seminars, conferences and other forums with participation of representatives from government institutions, academic and civil society institutions will be held.
The Russian Party’s initiative to organize research-to-practice conference on relations between Russia and the Arab world and relevant aspects of the situation in the Middle East will be considered.

 

Un interviu cu Richard N. Haass

Un interviu cu Richard N. Haass în revista Prism.
Q: What is your assessment of the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review?
Haass: I am frankly skeptical that it will lead to significant changes.
Q: In the recently released Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, there’s an indication of a strategic pivot toward Asia and the Pacific. Do you think that is a wise move?
Haass: I’m not wild about the word “pivot.” It’s too sharp. I think two things. The United States has been overly invested in the greater Middle East, and I do think it has been strategically distorting. The investments both in Iraq and in Afghanistan have been way too big, and our interests did not warrant it. The opportunities there, the dangers there, didn’t warrant it. I’m glad to see a slight dialing down or considerable dialing down of the American military presence in the greater Middle East. We’ll see what happens with Iran. That could be a temporary exception. All things being equal, the era of a large American footprint in the greater Middle East is over and should be over.