După Irak, Arabia Saudită

După știrle cu armata irakiană care a lăsat cadou tehnică militară americană tocmai grupării ISIL, acum urmează Arabia Saudită.

Why Saudi Arabia’s Yemen War Is Not Producing Victory

King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud appointed his son as defense minister Jan. 23 after the son had served as chief of Salman’s royal court for two years. The son had no previous military experience or military education. Less than two months after his appointment, the Saudis began Operation Decisive Storm to coerce the Houthis to restore the government of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi back to power. The Saudis gave Washington three hours’ notice of the first airstrikes. The king’s son immediately became the face of the war, appearing endlessly in the Saudi media directing operations and trying to find allies to join the campaign.

The Salmans also immediately sought experienced combat-tested ground forces from Pakistan to take the war into Yemen. The Pakistanis came away from meetings in Riyadh convinced the king and his son had „panicked” and jumped into the war without a viable strategy for achieving victory; the Pakistanis refused to join the war effort and leaked their worries to the press. The young prince was portrayed as „untested” and unprepared for the job. All this from a Pakistani leader, Nawaz Sharif, who spent years in exile in the kingdom and knows the royals better than any other outsider.

There are similar mutterings around the Gulf states now that the Saudi leadership is impulsive and rash. The Saudis have traditionally been very conservative and risk-averse. From Faisal to Abdullah, Saudi kings were cautious and careful. Now there is hushed talk of a team out of its depth with no plan for an endgame. No one wants to say openly that Riyadh is in a quagmire, but Oman’s decision to opt out of the war is increasingly seen as a smart decision.

Scenariul

The Coming War in the Middle East by Lieutenant Colonel Joel Rayburn
Turkish Arabia’s Coming War
We can envision, then, a sectarian war raging across the whole of the Fertile Crescent, drawing in all the former territories of Turkish Arabia. The prospect will be a frightening one for the region’s major powers. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia could one day find chaos rather than functioning states on their permeable borders. If Al Qaeda/Nusrah can establish a base in Jordan, Saudi Arabia will find itself threatened by Al Qaeda franchises on both north and south that will be well-positioned to resume the pursuit of Al Qaeda’s core goal of toppling the Saudi monarchy and “liberating” the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.